China's manufacturing industry is expected to have a major impact in March as the COVID-19 event and shutdown affected consumers and manufacturers, but a strong start to the year could boost first-quarter growth.
According to data from Monday, April 18, gross domestic product (GDP) from January to March is expected to increase by 4.4% compared to the previous year. It starts in the first two months.
However, in the third quarter, GDP growth is expected to slow down from 1.6% from October to December to 0.6% in the first quarter, indicating a sharp slowdown.
Merger break-up data in March, particularly for retailers, suggests a slowdown could be in store due to China's tightening efforts to keep down the highest COVID-19 numbers since it was seen. for the first time in Wuhan at the end of 2019. According to analysts. .
Analysts expect April's debt to be better and say shutdowns in Shanghai and elsewhere will be delayed. Some financial experts say stock market risk is down.
The government is due to announce its first quarter and March figures at 2 a.m. GMT on Monday, sparking speculation whether investors will take further steps to stimulate the economy.
China's central bank said on Friday it would lower its bank reserve requirement for the first time this year, freeing up about 530 billion yuan ($83.25 billion) in revenue for a long time.
The move follows increased demand after the Council of State said on Wednesday that financial instruments, including the deductible bank reserve rate (RRR), were needed.
Lawmakers must make sure nothing happens before the once-decade decision of the Communist Party meeting in the fall, when it is almost certain that President Xi Jinping will have a third security chief who has never been seen before, lawmakers said. But Beijing's strict refusal to give up on COVID-19 has made it the world's second-largest economy and is beginning to disrupt the global chain, from cars to iPhones.
Barclays analysts said in a statement: "Ahead of the party meeting, I believe the central bank will play a key role in driving growth, particularly given the ongoing COVID-19 war and the sector housing has not returned."
Sales, a slower measure of usage since the first distribution of COVID-19, will fall 1.6% in March from a year earlier. It would be the best performance since June 2020 and reverse a 6.7% increase in the first two months, according to the election.
Manufacturing output in March rose 4.5% from a year earlier, slowing 7.5% in the first two months, while fixed income rose 8.5% in January- March, slowing from 12.2% in 2015. first two months. Reuters polls predict China's growth will slow to 5% by 2022, indicating the government is struggling to meet its 5.5% target this year.
Barclays estimates that if the Shanghai delay closes in a month and part of the global shutdown continues in two months, then second-quarter GDP growth could fall to 3%, pushing growth to 4.2. % in 2022.
When Chinese exports fell in March to offset weak domestic demand and disrupt transportation disruptions with COVID-19, exports, the main driver of growth, were weak.
The government announced more financial support this year, including tighter local antitrust contracts and corporate tax cuts to help fund the campaign.
But analysts are unsure how much the cut will do to stave off a recession in the near future, as manufacturers and businesses struggle and consumers need to watch their spending. More and more effort can also lead to major resources and is still high in financial activities.
"At this point, the RRR does not think it's important to do more industry on stage".
"A big problem for bacteria is locked the rules prohibiting the risk. "The economy will slow down if there are no good policies to address the migration problem. We expect GDP growth to turn negative in the second quarter."